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	<title>Think &#187; stock market</title>
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		<title>Stock market apt to stay difficult for some time</title>
		<link>http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/08/26/stock-market-apt-to-stay/</link>
		<comments>http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/08/26/stock-market-apt-to-stay/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Aug 2010 10:00:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Joyce M. Rosenberg</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic recovery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market collapse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[troubles]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Get used to a difficult stock market.</p><p>It's nearly four months since stocks reached their 2010 highs and began falling on investors' doubts about the economic recovery. Some analysts say it could be another year before investors get up enough confidence to restart the rally<strong><small><a href="http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/08/26/stock-market-apt-to-stay/"> . . . read more</a></strong></small>    <a href="http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/08/26/stock-market-apt-to-stay/">Read More</a>]]></description>
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<p>NEW YORK (AP) — Get used to a difficult stock market.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s nearly four months since stocks reached their 2010 highs and began falling on investors&#8217; doubts about the economic recovery. Some analysts say it could be another year before investors get up enough confidence to restart the rally.</p>
<p>The economy isn&#8217;t helping them. Last week, the Federal Reserve and two mass-market retailers, JCPenney Co. and Kohl&#8217;s Corp., lowered their outlooks for the rest of the year. The CEO of networking equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc. used the same words as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to describe the economy: unusually uncertain.</p>
<p>The Fed also said last week it would start buying government debt in hopes of stimulating lending and in turn economic growth, though investors proved skeptical. The Dow Jones lost almost 400 points over four days.</p>
<p>But investors aren&#8217;t even resolute about selling. Stocks have racheted up and down since late April. The market began August with a burst of optimism based on many companies&#8217; overall upbeat view of the rest of the year. The Dow rose 208 points Aug. 2, the first trading day of the month.</p>
<p>Subodh Kumar, global investment strategist at Subodh Kumar &amp; Assoc. in Toronto, noted that the Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s 500 index has moved within a range of about 1,020 and 1,217 this year. &#8220;That broad range will hold until the middle of 2011,&#8221; he said. The index closed Friday, August 13, at 1,079.25.</p>
<p>A similar but shorter-term prediction came from Steven Goldman, chief market strategist at Weeden &amp; Co. in Greenwich, Conn. &#8220;It looks like it will be this way for the rest of the year,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>You don&#8217;t have to be a market pro to understand why. Private employers aren&#8217;t hiring at a pace that will get millions of unemployed people back to work. The government put the number of unemployed in July at 14.6 million. Meanwhile, many working people aren&#8217;t making enough to pay all of their bills. And then there are those with jobs who are nervous and socking money away. This all adds up to weak consumer spending that can&#8217;t give the recovery much momentum.</p>
<p>And there are still the fundamental problems of a troubled housing market and banks that aren&#8217;t willing to lend. Even with the Fed stepping in, those issues are likely to remain for some time.</p>
<p>One sign that investors aren&#8217;t expecting the economy to pick up speed anytime soon is the poor performance of small-cap stocks. When investors believe the economy is about to go on an upswing, they tend to start buying smaller company stocks on the theory that those companies will see the biggest gains when business is good. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks the performance of small-caps, is down almost 18 percent from its 2010 high close of 741.92, reached April 23.</p>
<p>The Dow, meanwhile, is down 8 percent from its 2010 high close of 11,205.03, reached April 26. And the S&amp;P 500 is down 11.3 percent from its high of 1,217.28, reached April 23.</p>
<p>The deep troubles in the economy may well mean that even when another rally starts, it will still take years before investors can make back the trillions of dollars lost in the 2008-09 market collapse. The Dow has a long way to go before it comes close to surpassing the 14,164.53 record close it had on Oct. 9, 2007. While it is up 57 percent from the 12-year low of 6,547.05 it fell to on March 9, 2009, it&#8217;s still 27 percent below its record.</p>
<p>Looking at the market&#8217;s recoveries from some past collapses, it&#8217;s quite clear that this time around, stocks won&#8217;t enjoy a scenario like the 15 months it took the Dow to regain all the ground it lost in the October 1987 crash. The Dow didn&#8217;t reach a new closing high until two years after the crash.</p>
<p>The worst scenario was the recovery from the 1929 crash. Because of the Great Depression, the Dow kept falling until July 1932. It took about a quarter century, until 1954, for the Dow to recover all the ground it lost and reach a new closing high.</p>
<p>Perhaps a more likely scenario is the market&#8217;s recovery from the nearly three-year slump that started with the dot-com bust in early 2000. The high-tech collapse was followed by a recession, the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks and then a string of corporate scandals that sent stocks tumbling until October 2002. The Dow peaked at 11,722.98 in January 2000, then didn&#8217;t return to that level and reach a new closing high until October 2006.</p>
<p>
<p align="center">Copyright 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.</p>
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		<title>SEC proposing uniform ‘audit trail’ for orders</title>
		<link>http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/06/02/sec-proposing/</link>
		<comments>http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/06/02/sec-proposing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Jun 2010 12:00:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Marcy Gordon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[audit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reform]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[regulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SEC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://think.zionsdirect.com/?p=3983</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Federal regulators moved Wednesday, May 26, toward requiring a uniform system for tracking all securities orders on U.S. exchanges, in hopes of making it easier to investigate market disruptions like the May 6 plunge.</p><p>Members of the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed, on a 5-0 vote, requiring exchanges to maintain an "audit trail" covering trading orders from start to routing to execution.</p><p>The regulators say that would make it easier to investigate market<strong><small><a href="http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/06/02/sec-proposing/"> . . . read more</a></strong></small>   <a href="http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/06/02/sec-proposing/">Read More</a>]]></description>
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<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal regulators moved Wednesday, May 26, toward requiring a uniform system for tracking all securities orders on U.S. exchanges, in hopes of making it easier to investigate market disruptions like the May 6 plunge.</p>
<p>Members of the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed, on a 5-0 vote, requiring exchanges to maintain an &#8220;audit trail&#8221; covering trading orders from start to routing to execution.</p>
<p>The regulators say that would make it easier to investigate market disruptions like the so-called &#8220;flash crash&#8221; earlier this month that sent the Dow Jones industrials down nearly 1,000 points in less than 30 minutes.</p>
<p>The new system, however, would be phased in under the SEC proposal and wouldn&#8217;t be fully operational until about three years from now, SEC officials said at a public meeting. It would cost market players, including exchange monitoring bodies and brokerage firms, about $4 billion to put into place and $2 billion a year to operate, according to SEC estimates.</p>
<p>The proposed rule could be formally adopted sometime after a 60-day public comment period, possibly with changes.</p>
<p>More than 19 billion shares changed hands on May 6. Requirements for keeping &#8220;audit trails&#8221; vary among exchanges and markets, making it hard for regulators to get their hands on current order data.</p>
<p>The technology used by regulators for market oversight and surveillance hasn&#8217;t kept pace with fast-evolving and splintering markets, where sleek electronic trading platforms compete with the traditional exchanges and powerful computers give traders a split-second edge in buying or selling stocks.</p>
<p>A new system would allow regulators to get access in real time to most of the data needed to reconstruct the type of market disruption that occurred on May 6, with the remaining data available in days rather than weeks, SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro said before the vote.</p>
<p>The change &#8220;would be an important next step in our efforts to maintain fair, orderly and efficient markets,&#8221; she said.</p>
<p>A systemwide audit trail could help regulators pinpoint the cause of market disruptions but may not eliminate every gap in tracking trades, said Menachem Brenner, research professor of finance at New York University Stern School of Business. For instance, trades of U.S. stocks executed on overseas exchanges likely won&#8217;t be included in the audit trail, Brenner said.</p>
<p>&#8220;We always kind of leave out that there&#8217;s a lot trading that happens outside the U.S. in places like London and Hong Kong,&#8221; Brenner said. &#8220;But any measure being implemented by the SEC is only going to apply to U.S. exchanges.&#8221;</p>
<p>Still, he said, the plan should help regulators avoid future market irregularities. &#8220;Hopefully by knowing what causes the problem, they&#8217;ll be better able to come up with a solution,&#8221; Brenner said.</p>
<p>Following the &#8220;flash crash,&#8221; the SEC and the major exchanges unveiled a plan to adopt market-wide &#8220;circuit breakers&#8221; to pause trading during periods of high volatility.</p>
<p>Under that plan, trading of any Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s 500 stock that rises or falls 10 percent or more within a five-minute period would be halted for five minutes. The rules would be applied if the price swing occurs between 9:45 a.m. and 3:35 p.m. Eastern time — nearly the entire trading day.</p>
<p>The break is intended to head off a chain reaction of human and computerized selling, one of several possible causes of the May 6 plunge. The drop briefly wiped out $1 trillion in market value as some stocks traded as low as a penny.</p>
<p>The SEC members also voted Wednesday to tighten rules governing disclosures about municipal securities, to aid investors in a $2.8 trillion market used by local governments to finance schools, roads and hospitals around the country. The new rules, which take effect Dec. 1, require brokers and dealers in municipal bonds and other securities to make fuller and more timely disclosures to investors.</p>
<p>The change brings brokers&#8217; disclosure requirements for municipal securities in line with what is mandated in the market for corporate securities, SEC officials say.</p>
<p>__</p>
<p>AP Business Writer Stevenson Jacobs in New York contributed to this report.</p>
</div>
<p></p>
<p align="center">Copyright 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.</p>
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		<title>Wall Street’s fear gauge sinks to 2-year low</title>
		<link>http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/03/29/wall-streets-fear-gauge/</link>
		<comments>http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/03/29/wall-streets-fear-gauge/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Mar 2010 13:00:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mark Jewell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fear gauge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[S&P 500]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VIX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://think.zionsdirect.com/?p=3403</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>What's not to like about this stock market? It's been steadily rising for more than a month. And it's been the kind of gentle climb that appeals to investors eager for a respite from a couple years of sharp ups and downs.</p><p>As stocks have ticked upward from a Feb. 8 low, a measure of the market's volatility has sunk to its lowest level in nearly two years. The Chicago Board of Index Options' Volatility Index — informally known as Wall Street's fear gauge — has closed below 17 points for five trading days in a row, and finished Tuesday at 16.35. The last time the VIX closed below 17 was May 16, 2008. It's even slightly below its historic average of around 19 points.<strong><small><a href="http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/03/29/wall-streets-fear-gauge/"> . . . read more</a></strong></small>  <a href="http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/03/29/wall-streets-fear-gauge/">Read More</a>]]></description>
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<p>BOSTON (AP) — What&#8217;s not to like about this stock market? It&#8217;s been steadily rising for more than a month. And it&#8217;s been the kind of gentle climb that appeals to investors eager for a respite from a couple years of sharp ups and downs.</p>
<p>As stocks have ticked upward from a Feb. 8 low, a measure of the market&#8217;s volatility has sunk to its lowest level in nearly two years. The Chicago Board of Index Options&#8217; Volatility Index — informally known as Wall Street&#8217;s fear gauge — has closed below 17 points for five trading days in a row, and finished Tuesday at 16.35. The last time the VIX closed below 17 was May 16, 2008. It&#8217;s even slightly below its historic average of around 19 points.</p>
<p>The VIX measures market expectations of volatility over the next 30 days by tracking the prices investors are willing to pay for options — contracts to buy or sell a stock at a specified price and time. Investors buy options to protect themselves against fluctuating stock prices. When stocks are volatile, investors are afraid, and willing to pay higher prices for options. That raises the VIX.</p>
<p>Lately, investors have become more comfortable that they can predict the market&#8217;s direction.</p>
<p>&#8220;There is just not the demand for the kind of protection that options offer,&#8221; says Dan Deming of Stutland Equities, who trades options tied to the VIX.</p>
<p>The return to normalcy follows a dizzying couple years that saw the VIX hit a historic closing peak of 80 after the Lehman Brothers collapse.</p>
<p>The index sank into the teens late last year, then briefly returned to the 20s in late January amid fears about Greece&#8217;s shaky finances and broader worries about the global economy. Now VIX is back in the teens, despite the mixed signals investors continue to get about the pace of economic recovery.</p>
<p>But stocks have been resilient.</p>
<p>&#8220;Each time it looks like the market will break down a bit, it&#8217;s been able to find fresh money,&#8221; Deming says.</p>
<p>After starting the year on an up note, stocks began falling in late January. The bull market got back on track starting Feb. 9, and the Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s 500 has since risen 10.8 percent. That climb has been smooth, with few big one-day swings, and overall the index is up 5 percent for the year.</p>
<p>Deming figures the market&#8217;s rise is slightly ahead of where it should be, given the uncertainty about the economy as government stimulus measures are withdrawn. For example, a $1.25 trillion Federal Reserve program to buy up mortgage securities is set to expire March 31, which many fear could trigger a rise in mortgage rates.</p>
<p>&#8220;The market looks pretty tired,&#8221; says Deming, who believes the S&amp;P 500 is likely to slip around 5 percent in the next month. &#8220;There are certainly areas of the economy, like housing, that need to show some signs of life for the market to really go much higher.&#8221;</p>
<p>If the market starts to decline, the VIX would likely rise, as investors are willing to pay more for protection from stock swings.</p>
<p>Still, investors shouldn&#8217;t use the VIX to predict where stocks are headed. A study this month by the market research firm Birinyi Associates didn&#8217;t find a strong correlation.</p>
<p>The report called the VIX &#8220;a coincidental indicator with limited predictive value. It details, perhaps better than other measures, the volatility of the market today, but not tomorrow or the day after.&#8221;</p>
</div>
<p></p>
<p align="center">Copyright 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.</p>
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		<title>The Rebound: Numbers tell story of market recovery</title>
		<link>http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/03/11/the-rebound-numbers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Mar 2010 10:00:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Paradis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial system]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NASDAQ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rebound]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recovery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[S&P 500]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://think.zionsdirect.com/?p=3224</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>On March 9, 2009, it felt like the world was ending.</p><p>The Dow Jones industrial average had tumbled to a 12-year low of 6,547, and looked to keep plunging. A day later, Citigroup Inc. stopped the market's drop with news that it was turning a profit. That began the stock market's answer to the Great Recession: the Great Rebound<strong><small><a href="http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/03/11/the-rebound-numbers/"> . . . read more</a></strong></small>  <a href="http://think.zionsdirect.com/2010/03/11/the-rebound-numbers/">Read More</a>]]></description>
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<p>NEW YORK — On March 9, 2009, it felt like the world was ending.</p>
<p>The Dow Jones industrial average had tumbled to a 12-year low of 6,547, and looked to keep plunging. A day later, Citigroup Inc. stopped the market&#8217;s drop with news that it was turning a profit. That began the stock market&#8217;s answer to the Great Recession: the Great Rebound.</p>
<p>The numbers are hard to believe. The Dow has rocketed 61 percent in a year. That&#8217;s the kind of gain that would normally come in five or six good years. The Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s 500 index — which is the basis for many retirement accounts and mutual funds — jumped 20 percent in the first 10 trading days after March low. It&#8217;s now up 68 percent.</p>
<p>And Citigroup? The bank that was hardest hit by the financial meltdown has seen its shares triple to $3.50.</p>
<p>There are still huge worries about jobs, deficits and the government&#8217;s role in propping up a shaky financial system. But the market&#8217;s climb means that, for now, investors are betting on a sustained economic recovery.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a by-the-numbers look at one of the most remarkable years in the history of the stock market.</p>
<p>— $5.6 trillion: Total gains in the stock market since March 9, as measured by the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index, which tracks nearly all U.S.-based companies.</p>
<p>— $5.6 trillion: The amount that stocks are still down from October 2007, when the Dow peaked at 14,164.</p>
<p>— 83 percent: Amount the technology-dominated Nasdaq composite index is up since March 9.</p>
<p>— 98 percent: Number of stocks in the S&amp;P 500 index that are up since March.</p>
<p>— 24 percent: Number of stocks in the S&amp;P 500 index that are up since the market&#8217;s peak in October 2007.</p>
<p>— 129 percent: The average gain among financial stocks — the best-performing industry group in the S&amp;P 500 index.</p>
<p>— 97 percent: The average gain among consumer-discretionary stocks, which includes retailers.</p>
<p>— 17 percent: The average gain among telecommunications services stocks — the worst-performing industry group.</p>
<p>— 1,701 percent: Gain in shares of Genworth Financial Inc. from 91 cents to $16.39, through March 5. The best performer in the S&amp;P 500 index.</p>
<p>— 647 percent: Gain in a share of Ford Motor Co. from $1.74 to $13.00.</p>
<p>— 345 percent: Gain in a share of Bank of America Corp. from $3.75 to $16.70.</p>
<p>— 121 percent: Gain in a share of General Electric Co. from $7.41 to $16.35.</p>
<p>— 14 percent: Gain in a share of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. from $47.51 to $54.14.</p>
<p>— -56 percent: Drop in shares of MetroPCS Communications Inc. from $14.56 to $6.38; the worst performer in the S&amp;P 500 index.</p>
<p>— -$1.55 billion: Net cash flow for stock mutual funds, representing the money put into funds minus the money taken out.</p>
<p>— $386 billion: Net cash flow for bond mutual funds.</p>
<p>— 18-20: The historical average for the Volatility Index of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, also known as the VIX, or the market&#8217;s &#8220;Fear Index.&#8221;</p>
<p>— 49.68: Where the VIX stood a year ago.</p>
<p>— 17.42: Where the VIX closed on March 5.</p>
<p>— $918: The price of an ounce of gold a year ago.</p>
<p>— $1,135.20: The price of an ounce of gold on March 5.</p>
<p>— 8.2 percent: Unemployment rate as of February last year.</p>
<p>— 9.7 percent: Unemployment rate as of February of this year.</p>
<p>— 726,000: Jobs lost in February last year.</p>
<p>— 36,000: Jobs lost in February of this year.</p>
<p>— $202.1 billion: Losses of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 index in the final three months of 2008, a record.</p>
<p>— $132.7 billion: Estimated earnings of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 index in the final three months of 2009.</p>
<p>— $1.26: The amount it cost to buy one euro a year ago.</p>
<p>— $1.36: The amount it costs to buy one euro now.</p>
<p>— 25.3: Consumer confidence a year ago — a record low.</p>
<p>— 46: Consumer confidence today.</p>
<p>— 90: Consumer confidence number that economists believe signifies a healthy economy.</p>
<p>— 5.15 percent: Average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage last year.</p>
<p>— 4.97 percent: Average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage now.</p>
</div>
<p></p>
<p align="center">Copyright 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.</p>
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		<title>Economist Survey</title>
		<link>http://think.zionsdirect.com/2009/03/04/economist-survey/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 16:55:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jeff Thredgold</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2010]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economists]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NABE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock market]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
The latest survey of 47 national economists (including yours truly) by the National Association for Business Economics was conducted in recent weeks and formally released on Monday, February 23. As one might expect, it was not pretty.

The consensus view has deteriorated sharply when compared to prior forecasts, which are conducted three times annually.  “The steady drumbeat of weak economic and financial market data have made business economists decidedly more pessimistic on the economic outlook for the next several quarters,” noted Chris Varvares, the current president of the group.  “While a few reports offer some glimmer of hope, a meaningful recovery is not expected to take hold until next year.” <a href="http://think.zionsdirect.com/2009/03/04/economist-survey/">Read More</a>]]></description>
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<h5><font style="text-transform: uppercase;"><strong>A ROOMFUL OF ECONOMISTS | </strong></font></h5>
<p>The latest survey of 47 national economists (including yours truly) by the National Association for Business Economics was conducted in recent weeks and formally released on Monday, February 23. As one might expect, it was not pretty.</p>
<p>The consensus view has deteriorated sharply when compared to prior forecasts, which are conducted three times annually.  “The steady drumbeat of weak economic and financial market data have made business economists decidedly more pessimistic on the economic outlook for the next several quarters,” noted Chris Varvares, the current president of the group.  “While a few reports offer some glimmer of hope, a meaningful recovery is not expected to take hold until next year.”</p>
<p><img src="http://www.thredgold.com/assets/images/autogen/a_090225nabegdpgold.gif" alt="NABE Forecast" /></p>
<p><strong>But Getting Better</strong></p>
<p>As the chart notes, a sharp contraction in the U.S. economy is likely during the current quarter, with lesser pain during the spring. The consensus also sees soft, but at least positive growth (hurray!) returning during 2009’s second half. (Note:  I still think it may be 2009’s fourth quarter before growth returns, but what do I know…hey!…no rude comments!)</p>
<p>The forecast for calendar year 2009 is for a 0.9% real (after inflation) rate of contraction, when comparing this year’s fourth quarter to last year’s fourth quarter. This would be the most painful decline since 1982, and worse than the 0.2% decline by this measurement during 2008.</p>
<p>To show just how bad seasoned economists have been, last November’s forecast consensus was for a 0.7% growth rate during 2009.  Last May’s forecast?  A 2.7% growth pace during 2009…(nobody said forecasting the future is easy!)</p>
<p>These “crystal ball gazers” collectively now see the unemployment rate reaching 9.0% sometime in the fourth quarter, with the loss of another three million jobs in 2009, matching job losses during 2008. Overall corporate profits are expected to fall 9% this year, with housing starts and auto sales the weakest in decades.</p>
<p><strong>Stock Market Optimism</strong></p>
<p>The outlook for the stock market is very optimistic, with the consensus seeing the Standard &#038; Poor’s 500 at 975 by the end of the year, up 30% from the current level near 750. Note, however, that the consensus last November saw the S&#038;P at 1200 at year end 2009…ouch!</p>
<p><strong>A Solid 2010</strong></p>
<p>Better news involves the forecast for 2010.  Prior optimism last November has been pushed back, not abandoned.  The consensus sees 3.1% real growth in 2010.  They see the unemployment rate beginning to fall, with the addition of 1.3 million jobs during the year.  The consensus also expects housing starts and auto sales to at least reach the subdued levels seen during 2008.</p>
<p><strong>Leading the Way</strong></p>
<p>The United States is seen as the most likely major nation to emerge from recession first.  Roughly one-third of the forecasters see the U.S. back on its feet first, followed by 28% who believe China will recover first.  Another 13% see Canada first out of the recession litter box.  Less than 4% expect Europe to lead the global recovery. </p>
<p><strong></strong><br />
<em>Jeff Thredgold is an economic consultant to Zions Bank</em></p>
<p><strong></strong><br />
<strong>Featured in the 25 February 2009 issue of <a href="http://www.thredgold.com/" target="_blank">Jeff Thredgold&#8217;s <em>Tea Leaf</em> newsletter</a>.</strong></p>
<p><em>*Artwork from franckie under Creative Commons license at Flickr.com.</em></p>
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