One more month…one more exceedingly painful U.S. employment report

We have now had seven consecutive terrible job reports since the American consumer was told “the sky was falling” last September 18 by Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke and then-U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson. It was on that day that this dynamic duo emotionally and very publicly asked the U.S. Congress for $700,000,000,000 to fix financial markets.

That request, and the up-and-down discussion within the U.S. Congress during the following week, simply scared the American consumer to death. The consumer stopped spending…companies of all sizes adopted a “shoot first, ask questions later” approach to layoffs…and the economy dropped quickly. The rest, as they say, is history.

U.S. Employment Growth

The Numbers
Total U.S. employment fell by another 663,000 net jobs during March, matching economists’ consensus view. February’s previously reported loss of 651,000 jobs was not revised. That’s the good news. However, January’s previously reported (and previously revised) loss of 655,000 jobs lost was revised to show a loss of 741,000 jobs during the month—the worst month for job losses in 59 years. April losses will be ugly as well.

Equally painful was the surge in the nation’s unemployment rate from 8.1% in February to 8.5% in March, the highest level in 25 years. By comparison, the jobless rate was 5.1% just one year ago. The jobless rate averaged 4.6% in both 2006 and 2007 and 5.8% during 2008. An American jobless rate at or slightly above 9.5% is a real possibility within the next 9-12 months.

Economists have pointed out a handful of more positive economic statistics in housing, manufacturing, and retail sales in recent weeks to suggest that the U.S. economy is seemingly in the process of bottoming out. The consensus view of forecasting economists, as well as the collective view of the stock market, is for a return to marginally positive (yes positive!) U.S. economic growth during 2009’s second half.

We continue to expect GDP to be slightly positive during the fourth quarter. There was nothing in the March employment data to support this view, although yes, employment data is a lagging economic indicator.

Job Demise
The American economy has now lost 5.1 million jobs since the U.S. recession officially began in December 2007. Nearly two-thirds of the job erasures have occurred during the past five months alone.

As noted previously, the net loss of 3.1 million jobs during 2008 was the worst year for employment since 1945. To illustrate just how bad the first three months of 2009 have been…if no additional job losses were recorded over the balance of the year, 2009 would still be the fourth worst year since the U.S. Labor Department began tracking such data in 1939 (CNNMoney.com).

Inside the Pain
To illustrate just how pervasive and all-encompassing the current lengthy recession is, almost no employment sector is avoiding job cuts. The nation’s goods producing sector lost another 305,000 jobs during March. U.S. manufacturing was hit with the loss of another 161,000 jobs during the month, the 16th consecutive monthly decline. The nation’s embattled construction sector lost another 126,000 jobs, the 21st month in a row of cuts.

Equally dismal was the 358,000 net decline in service sector employment. The professional & business services sector lost another 133,000 jobs, while retail trade saw another 48,000 jobs bite the dust. Leisure & hospitality lost another 40,000 jobs, the finance industry lost another 25,000 jobs, and government employment declined by 5,000 positions. Only the education & health services category saw rising employment, although the net increase of 8,000 jobs was the weakest in that sector in many moons.

Better news was found in regard to the average hourly wage, which rose 0.2% (three cents) to $18.50 hourly. While the 3.4% rise over the past 12 months is hardly worth writing home about, it looks good versus consumer inflation which has been essentially zero during the past year.

More Jobless
Almost everyone knows one or many people who have seen their jobs disappear during the past 12-24 months. Prospects to replace these jobs with similar income levels are, for most, difficult. Such is the nature of a recession, especially the long and deep variety from which we are currently suffering.

A record 13.2 million people are now officially unemployed. Even more painful is the “underemployment” rate. This rate, which attracts rising attention each month, includes those who are unemployed, those who are working part-time but would prefer to work full-time, and those discouraged people who have dropped out of the labor force but would accept a job if one were offered…

…the “underemployment” rate is now 15.6%, up from 14.8% in February, and the highest since this particular measure began being tracked 15 years ago. This rate will move higher in coming months as well.

College Grads
Current job prospects for new college graduates are dicey. The National Association of Colleges and Employers forecast that employers will hire 22% fewer graduates this spring (The Associated Press).

More newly minted graduates are required to pound the pavement for jobs, rather than simply waiting for recruiters to visit their campuses. That may actually be a good thing. Since the average graduate will change jobs three times within five years of graduation, developing good job search skills now may just come in handy.

Pick Your Poison
No gender, race, or education level avoided the employment ax in March. The jobless rate for adult men spiked from 8.1% in February to 8.8% in March as traditionally male-dominant (can I say that?) sectors such as manufacturing and construction got hammered. The jobless rate for women rose from 6.7% to 7.0%.

The jobless rate for Whites rose from 7.3% in February to 7.9% in March. The jobless rate for those workers of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity rose from 10.9% to 11.4%. The jobless rate for Blacks or African-Americans actually dipped by 0.1%, but was still an unacceptably high 13.3%.

Unemployment rates for those of all educational levels also rose during the month. Those with at least a bachelor’s degree had a jobless rate of 4.3%, with the rate moving higher for those with less education. The jobless rate for those with less than a high school diploma? 13.3%!

We will get through this recession, but seeds of new growth will continue to be seen in other sectors besides and before employment.

Jeff Thredgold is an economic consultant to Zions Bank

Featured in the 8 April 2009 issue of Jeff Thredgold’s Tea Leaf newsletter.

*Artwork from Rob Sheridan under Creative Commons license at Flickr.com.

Their stories are as diverse as the workforce: a mother heading back to the office after raising her children, an ex-prison inmate looking for a job to jumpstart his new life, or a soldier rejoining the working ranks.

Re-entering the labor force is a daunting task facing more than 2.7 million men and women in the United States, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

If you’re one of those returning job seekers, it’s time to polish your skills, brush up on your interview techniques and dust off that resume you haven’t looked at in years.

Utah Workforce Services and the Idaho Department of Labor offer some tips on jumping back into the job market with gusto.

“It’s a tough market, but it’s not an impossible market,” says Tim Leigh, assistant manager of the Idaho Department of Labor’s Boise office. “If you have the skills and can sell yourself to that employer, you have a better chance.”

Create a Killer Resume

Your resume is the first — and sometimes only — thing an employer will see. It must be easy to read, professional and stress job-specific skills.

Don’t highlight your absence from the workforce by organizing your resume chronologically. Instead, send out skills-based resumes by grouping your experience by expertise rather than time of employment.

Also, don’t forget to include jobs and skills that were not wage-earning employment. A mother who served on the PTA, volunteered at a charity or organized an event should list any of those activities that highlight her abilities.

Utah Workforce Services recommends resumes be less than two pages and should not include fancy fonts, graphics or photographs.

Brush Up on Your Skills

Find out what skills you’ll need at the position you’re eying. Make sure you’re well-versed in the latest software, computer and management skills for that industry.

If you’re not sure what skills you need, Leigh suggests doing an informational interview with an employer to find out what they want in an employee.

Prepare for a Slam-dunk Interview

“Interviews are scary. You have to really sell yourself to that employer and you have a short period of time to make a good impression,” Leigh says.

To make that first impression, be 15 minutes early to an interview and always assume someone is watching you — even if the official interview has not started.

Once your interview starts, don’t forget common courtesies like shaking hands, waiting to sit until asked and making eye contact with each interviewer in the room.

Also, try to be yourself and treat the interviewer like a human being. A sense of humor is always appreciated, Leigh adds. Time is short, so your answers should be about your skills that qualify you for the position, not about your personal life.

Always ask questions such as when the employer will make a decision, what the daily routine is like, or even if you can get a tour of the facility.

Wages shouldn’t be part of the conversation, however. Unless the employer brings it up or you’ve already been offered the job, salary discussions should be off the table, Leigh says.

And don’t forget — if you want the job, ask for it.

Dress the Part

Dress one step above the employees for an interview. If the office is business casual, then you should wear slacks and a button-down shirt and tie. If you’re applying to be a mechanic, wear slacks and a polo shirt rather than jeans and a T-shirt.

Your appearance should be neat; men should shave or neatly trim facial hair. Women should use make-up sparingly and use perfumes lightly or not at all, according to Utah Workforce Services.

Nix the Ticks

Now is the time to get rid of that nervous tick, whether it’s jingling keys in your pocket or tapping a pencil on the desk. Ideally, your gestures should be natural instead of clasping your hands on your lap or sticking them in your pockets. Utah Workforce Services recommends practicing your mannerisms in front of friends or a video camera.

Be Choosy

Job seekers should always start with what they want to do, not what the market says is available.

“If you’re happy in your job, you’re going to perform it a whole lot better,” Leigh says. “Look for what you want first and if you don’t get anywhere in two to four weeks, re-evaluate and look at the market.”

If you feel pressure to take the first job you’re offered, it’s OK to take a “maintenance job” to keep the paychecks coming. Just don’t give up searching for that dream job, Leigh says.

Stay Positive

There’s no doubt the job market is tough right now, Leigh adds. But part of the job search is slapping on a smile and being excited about every interview.

“Stay positive, stay happy and stay excited about the job search,” Leigh says. “Don’t let the labor market get you down and beat you. You’re great people with great skills, the right job just hasn’t come.”

Check out these career Web sites to start your job search:
* www.career.com
* www.careerbuilder.com
* www.flipdog.com
* www.indeed.com
* www.linkedin.com
* www.monsterboard.com
* www.simplyhired.com
* www.somethinghired.com
* www.thejobnetwork.com
* www.wantedjobs.com
* www.zoominfo.com

Featured in the March/April 2009 issue of Zions Bank’s Community magazine.

*Artwork from ramsey everydaypants under Creative Commons license at Flickr.com.