If you have a 401(k) account, a mortgage, job, car, or if you eat food — or if you have a loved one who does — then chances are you’ve experienced additional stress this year. The economic downturn, experts assure us, has affected just about everyone: rich and poor, young and old, white collar and blue collar, blue states and red. We’re all in this together. But when we’re watching our investments shrink, or looking at a bill we can’t afford to pay, it’s easy to feel very alone.

Insomnia, anger, depression, self-medicating with drugs or food, and panic attacks are just some of the symptoms that have been reported because of “credit-crisis stress.” Here are some tips for coping when it feels like the sky is falling.

THE AMERICAN ECONOMY…the recession continues
Domestic and global financial sector paranoia has contributed to major weakness within the U.S. economy. Enormous investment and lending losses have sharply curtailed the availability of credit.

Such financial sector weakness has led to creative and extremely costly government proposals to stabilize financial markets. These factors, combined with prior excesses in new home construction and existing home price appreciation, led to the current period of serious recession, which officially began in December 2007.

Housing, poses enormous risk to the U.S. economy through its impact on financial markets, financial institution solvency and consumer confidence and spending. Key will be what happens to housing prices and the extent to which falling prices affect expected losses on mortgages and other linked financial instruments and the extent to which declining wealth affects consumer spending. Prospects are decidedly negative on all fronts as housing price declines continue unabated.

The linkages between housing wealth, price changes and consumer spending are imprecise and have been hotly debated. As the evidence comes in the debate is being resolved. Unfortunately, it appears increasingly that the resolution is in the direction of those who believe that housing had a substantial impact in stimulating consumer spending during the bubble phase and will have a commensurate negative impact now that the bubble is unwinding.

The revised estimate of Q3 GDP growth was -0.5%. This figure will be revised once more. The final number will be reported in the coming week and is expected to be revised down to between -0.6% and -0.9%.

Real consumer spending declined at an annual rate of 3.7% in the third quarter(likely to be revised down to -4.0%), the first negative quarter since 1991 and the worst negative quarter since the second quarter of 1980. Unfortunately, based on the severe decline of 4.7% in nominal retail sales from September through November, consumer spending is likely to fall further in the fourth quarter, which would make the current recession comparable in ugliness to the 1973-75 recession.

Table 1 shows the range of opinion that prevailed at the beginning of 2008 and the year-to-date results. Actual results through the October-November timeframe reflect a severe and troublesome deterioration in the performance of the U.S. and global economies coincident with the violent upheaval that swept over global financial markets beginning in mid-September. Indeed, virtually all optimism has evaporated and fears of the potential consequences of the rapidly escalating global recession abound.

The pessimistic view presented in Table 1 at the beginning of 2008 was actually not the worst view at the beginning of the year but one that reflected a mild recession scenario.

As the nation’s credit crisis has continued to make headlines, the United States Department of Treasury has continued to develop new tools to engender confidence and strengthen liquidity in the financial system. A major new element of the government’s response is the Capital Purchase Plan, an element of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act recently passed by Congress, by which up to $250 billion is being invested in healthy banks that form the backbone of our economy. This new capital is being provided in the form of senior preferred stock, with a coupon rate of 5 percent for the first five years, after which the rate increases to 9 percent. Warrants to purchase common stock at current prices, in an amount equal to 15 percent of the total investment, are also provided to the government. The structure of the program virtually ensures that these taxpayer funds will not constitute a “bailout,” but rather an investment that will be fully repaid by the many banks receiving this investment.