-
One swallow does not make a summer, but one skein of geese, cleaving the murk of March thaw, is the Spring.
Aldo Leopold Categories
Author Archives: Jeff Thredgold
Outlook 2011
While the American economy has now registered growth for five consecutive quarters, the pace of that growth has been meager, averaging a 2.9% real (after inflation) annual rate…and just a 2.1% rate during the past two quarters. Such growth trails the average 3.6% real annual growth pace of the past 30 years.
What we now call the Great Recession enters the history books at 18 months in duration, officially running from December 2007 to June 2009. Never since the Great Depression has a recession . . . read more Read More
China Currency
The U.S blinked in recent days, preferring to put off until after the November elections the question of whether or not to declare China a “currency manipulator.” Such a move might have been the correct one. What we don’t need at this juncture is a trade war with China . . . read more Read More
The American Economy …confidence is lacking
Most forecasting economists will tell you that the U.S. economy returned to growth about 12-15 months ago…statistically at least, if not emotionally. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the “official” scorekeeper for the American economy, is expected to make that call at any time in coming months. We do know that what we now call the Great Recession started in December 2007 . . . read more Read More
Less “Double Dip”
U.S. employment data remained on the weak side in August. At the same time, revisions to prior data, as well as slightly-stronger-than-expected new information regarding manufacturing, consumer confidence . . . read more Read More
No Confidence
Note the direction of U.S. economic growth during the past few quarters as identified in the quarterly growth chart—from a solid 5.0% real (after inflation) annual rate late last year, to a still respectable 3.7% pace during the winter, to an anemic 1.6% annual rate in the quarter just ended . . . read more Read More
Bubble Bonds
One investment “rule of thumb” that has traditionally developed is smaller investors are usually late to the game…and thus expose themselves to higher levels of risk when a market bubble leaks, bleeds, or bursts. Such a time could easily be approaching in regard to the purchase or continuing ownership of bonds . . . read more Read More
German Rebound
Most of the global community’s attention is focused on impressive economic strength across much of Asia and, to a lesser extent, the modest economic revival in the U.S. In addition, the recent strong performance of the German economy is noteworthy . . . read more Read More
..flation Investing
What’s it gonna be? Inflation or Deflation? Let me think now…inflation is going to be a huge problem in coming years. Did you see the incredible $1,400,000,000,000 federal budget deficit last year, with the same, or higher, budget deficit this year . . . read more Read More
Disincentives … an Update
Our Tea Leaf issue dated January 27, 2010 reviewed a handful of the major disincentives emanating from Washington DC that were currently sending shock waves through American businesses…and very likely to stifle solid levels of U.S. job creation in coming months and years. . . . read more Read More
21 Straight
September employment data was nothing to write home about as the jobless rate rose again and job losses were worse than expected. The employment data adds to views that while the U.S. economy has likely turned the corner toward positive economic growth, the growth pace is not likely to be very impressive.
The U.S. Labor Department reported a net loss of 263,000 jobs during September—worse than the 180,000 loss expected, led by a substantial drop in local government employment. In addition, previously reported losses in July and August were revised to show the addition (or is it subtraction?) of 13,000 more job losses. Read More
Autumn View
The majority of forecasting economists see U.S. economic growth returning in the current quarter, with most forecasts actually revised higher in recent weeks to reflect stronger performance. Reasonably solid growth during 2009’s final quarter also seems on tap, with positive, … Read More
Mixed Bag
U.S. employment data for August was a mix of “getting less painful” and “getting worse”…both as expected. The crux of the data was one more sign that the U.S. recession has largely run its course, although ongoing, but lesser, job losses and rising unemployment will remain the norm in coming months. Read More
Getting Better (OK … Less Bad)
The latest U.S. employment report had more elements of good news than perhaps any report in nearly a year, although all is obviously not well with employment. Still, it is nice to talk about more signs of an American economy now very likely transitioning out of the longest and most painful recession in our lifetimes. Read More
Fed Extension
President Obama made a solid choice this week to reappoint current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to a second four-year term. His initial four-year appointment by then-President Bush expires on January 31, 2010. Read More
Coming Issues for the Fed
The President of the United States is typically viewed as the most powerful person on the planet. Surprisingly, the Chair of the Federal Reserve is typically viewed by many as the second most powerful.
Indeed, I would make the case that the Fed Chair, through his or her influence upon short-term interest rates has perhaps more influence on our day-to-day lives than does the President. Read More
